CARL'S FIGHT BREAKDOWNS, EPISODE 188: LIKE NOTHING EVER HAPPENED

Carl is back to the Apex for Kape/Horiguchi 2 and memories of actual arenas.

SATURDAY, JUNE 20 FROM THE EMPTY SOUL OF THE APEX
PRELIMS 2 PM PDT / 5 PM EDT | MAIN CARD 5 PM PDT / 8 PM EDT

Feels real weird to go back to normal after all of that, doesn’t it?

Aside from the million other reasons I resent the White House card for existing, I can now add that for the first time in my entire goddamn life, I looked at a UFC event and thought “Oh, thank god, it’s only the Apex.”

only two fights above 145 pounds on the entire card and they stick out like sore, overly large thumbs

MAIN EVENT: HIDDEN HISTORY
FLYWEIGHT: Manel Kape (22-7, #2) vs Kyoji Horiguchi (36-5 (1), #5)

This is a great fucking fight. This is an amazing bout between two of the best Flyweights on the entire planet. It is only through the lens of the Apex, and what it says about the different scales at which mixed martial arts operates, that I can find a single thing to feel bad about.

I mean, aside from the whole ‘Manel Kape keeps using gay slurs and calling people who anger him genetic failures’ thing. I could complain about that, and honestly, our proximity to the White House card is probably why I just don’t have the energy to get mad about it again right now. I am not thinking about Manel Kape the weirdly insecure guy, I am thinking about Manel Kape, unequivocal top contender to the Flyweight title.

Because he is, man. There’s no more denying it. Kape has spent the last five years being dogged by an inability to get over the line, be it badly-timed losses or injuries or opponents botching their weight cuts or Kape botching his weight cuts or, you know, steroids, he’s found himself repeatedly boxed out of contention. Should Muhammad Mokaev have his spot? Yes. Should Asu Almabayev sue the Kape estate for beating him with multiple eye gouges strung together like a Mortal Kombat Armageddon create-a-fatality? Also yes.

Did Kape make himself undeniable by blowing Brandon Royval out of the water? That, unfortunately, is the biggest and most present yes. Royval spent years stuck in his own holding pattern right at the edge of the summit. Good enough to beat Brandon Moreno and get to Alexandre Pantoja twice: Not good enough to win the belt. Went the distance with Tatsuro Taira and Joshua Van, but only beat the former, not the latter. He was long considered the toughest top contender to beat in the entire goddamn company. So Kape immolating him in three minutes last December made him, seemingly, the natural fit for the title picture. Sure, there was the complicating wrinkle of Joshua Van having just won the belt on a bizarre injury stoppage, but Kape was next, right?

Nope! Tatsuro Taira, the man who lost to the man Kape had just destroyed. Well, that sucks for Kape, but that means he gets the next crack at Van, surely?

Why, no. Instead, he gets to fight the goddamn bogeyman.

Kyoji Horiguchi is the best fighter in the world. I don’t care that this is objectively untrue: I am asserting it anyway. 36-5 (1) is already an absurdly good record for anyone who’s spent the majority of their career in the major leagues, but it belies an even wilder sub-statistic: Only one of those losses actually came at Horiguchi’s home in the Flyweight division, and that was against Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson, arguably the greatest fighter of all time.

Flyweight is such an underbooked global divisionKyoji Horiguchi is just so god damned good that he had to fight at 135 pounds, despite being shorter than all but one of the UFC’s Bantamweights, and he was still great there. At one point in an era of co-promotion that now seems like an impossibly beautiful dream, he simultaneously held 135-pound gold in both Japan and America, thanks to Rizin and Bellator joining forces in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to compete with the UFC’s iron grip on the sport.

Shinryu Takahashi and Ougikubo, the only other Rizin Flyweight champions, both lost to Horiguchi before he left to return to the UFC. Kai Asakura fell to Horiguchi’s fists in under a round. Darrion Caldwell, Bellator champion, got beat by Horiguchi twice in six months. Ian McCall, UFC standout. Hideo Tokoro, living legend.

Manel Kape.

That’s right, baby: This is a rematch. The first time Kyoji and Manel fought was as part of a three-fights-in-48-hours tournament back in 2017 in Rizin. It was a good fight, too, with Kyoji ultimately choking Kape out late in the third. At the time, they were the two best Bantamweights Rizin had to offer, and they did battle in the Saitama Super Arena on New Year’s Eve on the same card as Mirko Cro-Cop, Takanori Gomi and Tenshin Nasukawa in front of tens of thousands of people.

And now they’re two of the best Flyweights the UFC has to offer and they’re fighting for title contention in the Apex.

Really sucks the air out of things, doesn’t it? Like, this is great! This is a stellar fucking fight! Almost nine years of history leading up to this rematch, two men at the top of their game, one maddened by a need for revenge, the other trying to live up to the dreams of his fallen master (no, really, he changed his nickname over it and everything), with the winner all but guaranteed a shot at the greatest Flyweight prize in the world. This is exactly the kind of thing the pomp and circumstance of combat sports theatrics were made for. You could market entire shows around this. When this fight was first rumored it was assumed to be an anchoring fight for the UFC’s first Japanese event in damn near a decade.

And instead it’s here, in the Apex, in front of a few dozen people and also co-main eventer Navajo Stirling before they kick him out because competing in the Apex doesn’t entitle you to a seat afterward.

This was a great fight in 2017 and it’s even better now. Both men have come even further into their own styles. Horiguchi has mastered his darting attacks and the way he varies up his offense so opponents don’t see his takedowns coming; Kape has calmed the fuck down (stylistically, if not personally) and is much better at taking his time and controlling how quickly he burns his gas tank. He’s a much more mature version of the 25 year-old Kyoji choked out.

But: He’s Kyoji goddamned Horiguchi. KYOJI GODDAMNED HORIGUCHI BY TKO.

CO-MAIN EVENT: AH, THAT’S BETTER
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT: Ion Cuțelaba (20-11-1 (1)) vs Navajo Stirling (9-0)

It’s like falling down an elevator shaft. It’s like running after the Road Runner and smacking facefirst into what you thought was a conveniently-placed tunnel. It’s like walking out of the shower in the morning happy, clean and prepared to face the horrors of the world only to slip and fall into the moat you dug around your house for when the Water Wars happen.

Except a moat has at least a little bit of depth, and Light Heavyweight does not.

Ion Cuțelaba has a losing UFC record. It’s close--it’s 9-10-1--but it’s still on the wrong side of history. He has a victory over top contender Khalil Rountree Jr.! In 2019. In the seven years since then, he has defeated the following men:

• Devin Clark, cut after going 8-9

• Tanner Boser, who just got re-signed after his unsuccessful 5-5 run

• Ivan Erslan, who just saved his job with his first-ever UFC victory last month after dropping three straight

• Ibo Aslan, who just finished dropping three straight

• Oumar Sy, who went from an undefeated superprospect to 1 for his last 3 after Ion choked him out in a single round

But, hey: Navajo Stirling, right? Undefeated! Young-ish! Name sounds sort of interesting! Is he setting the world on fire?

No. You fool. You foolish fool. There is no fire. There is no fuel to burn. In four UFC wins, Navajo Stirling has exactly one victory over a man with a winning record in the company. That man is Rodolfo Bellato, and that record is 2-1-1 (1).

These two men have only the barest hint of divisional traction. Neither has a particularly impactful win anywhere in their recent history. Nobody in this arrangement has demonstrated the capacity to be the future of the division.

Which sucks, because this fight might, legitimately, be pivotal to the future of the division.

Light Heavyweight is fucked, man. We talk about Women’s Bantamweight being in bad straits, but 205 is right on their tail. Here is the entire goddamn ladder, without missing a single beat.

• Brand new champion Carlos Ulberg tore his ACL in his title win and is out indefinitely

• #1 Magomed Ankalaev just got shitcanned by Alex Pereira and is being booked down the card against Khalil Rountree Jr.

• #2 Alex Pereira isn’t even in this division anymore and just got destroyed by Ciryl Gane at Heavyweight

• #3 Jiří Procházka is a fan favorite who has also been knocked out in three title shots in as many years and already lost to the champ

• #4 Jan Błachowicz just went on injury leave for a torn meniscus, by the time he returns from which he’ll be either damn near or past 44 years old and he already lost to the champ

• #5 Khalil Rountree Jr. is somehow the best-positioned contender left, which is unfortunate because he’s 1 for his last 3 after getting brutally knocked out twice in one year

• #6 Jamahal Hill is currently on his third or fourth injury leave for serious leg issues

• #7 Paulo Costa has one fight at Light Heavyweight

• #8 Azamat Murzakanov just got knocked out by Paulo Costa, who has one fight at Light Heavyweight

• #9 Volkan Oezdemir is almost 38 and already lost to the champ

• #10 Bogdan Guskov failed to beat Volkan and Jan both

• #11 Dominick Reyes is a weird, tragic meme and already lost to the champ

• #12 Nikita Krylov got knocked out by Reyes and Guskov both and is welcoming former Welterweight Robert Whittaker to the division next month

• #13 Johnny Walker is moving up to Heavyweight

• #14 Aleksandar Rakić is moving up to Heavyweight

• #15 Alonzo Menifield is almost 39, gets crushed by everyone in the top ten, and already got knocked out by the champ in twelve seconds

That’s it. That is the top of your entire Light Heavyweight division. 20% of the Light Heavyweight ladder is injured and another, separate 20% doesn’t even fight at Light Heavyweight anymore. There is exactly one fight between already-ranked fighters booked in the entire fucking weight class, and it’s Magomed Ankalaev, who was champion one fight ago, against Khalil Rountree Jr., who is half the top ten below him and coming off a vicious knockout loss. Pereira’s gone. Jiří’s tarnished. Ulberg might have to vacate. Paulo fucking Costa might get the next shot at the title.

BREAKING NEWS: In the middle of editing, Jamahal Hill announced that he, too, wants to move up to Heavyweight. We are now at one-fourth of the entire ladder departing said ladder for Heavyweight all at once. Half of the rankings are functionally gone. Jesus wept.

205 was the UFC’s premiere division. It was the land of Frank Shamrock and Tito Ortiz, Chuck Liddell and Randy Couture, Lyoto Machida and Rampage Jackson. Jon Jones. Daniel Cormier.

If you’re asking where the next great Light Heavyweight prospects are: This is, unironically, it. Navajo Stirling. Longest non-Ulberg winning streak in the division. Beneath him, it’s a three-way tie between no less than Dustin Jacoby, Iwo Baraniewski, and Billy Elekana. This is all there is.

Sit on the rusted throne. Inherit the ashes under your feet. NAVAJO STIRLING BY DECISION.

MAIN CARD: MISPLACED PIECES
FEATHERWEIGHT: Vinicius Oliveira (23-4, #12 at Bantamweight) vs Andre Fili (25-13 (1), NR)

One fight really changes everything, doesn’t it. On February 6, Vinicius Oliveira was one of Bantamweight’s biggest prospects. Rangy, powerful, difficult to effectively grapple, and possessed of that overt meanness in the way he hit people--not hunting for knockouts, not technically timing his counterpunches, just going out there trying to make his opponent completely miserable. And it worked fantastically, and it got him past a number of genuine prospects, and it got his name into the conversation for the top ten. And then it got him in the cage with Mario Bautista. Sometimes fights play out in such a way that it reinforces the concept of levels. Oliveira barely got a dozen strikes off between being absolutely styled on by Bautista’s grappling advantage, which, in turn, let Bautista crack him upside the head at will, and in just a hair under two rounds Bautista choked him out. More than being bummed out, though, Oliveira admitted a bit of relief, because cutting to 135 pounds was killing him.

He was supposed to get a solid measuring stick fight against the tragically fallen Giga Chikadze here, but Giga’s out, so instead we have the eternal road warrior, Andre Fili, who is entering, I swear to god, his seventh straight year of managing to never string together a pair of wins or losses. Back in 2019 he beat Myles Jury and Sheymon Moraes back-to-back, and since then: Chaos. He’s rarely ever boring, he’s rarely an easy out, and he goes to split decisions all the god damned time. But, statistically speaking, he wins more of them than he loses, so who’s to say if it’s good or bad? Hell, his entire career is a perpetually horrifying Sword of Damocles situation where every time I see him I think ‘hey, didn’t he temporarily go blind in one eye from getting punched too much?’ and then I remember that not only did that, in fact, happen, it was already almost three and a half years ago and he’s absorbed another 175 recorded headshots since then and that’s not counting sparring and I have to go lay down.

Please do not rob this poor man of his sight, Lok Dog. VINICIUS OLIVEIRA BY DECISION.

FEATHERWEIGHT: Hyder Amil (11-2) vs Christian Rodriguez (12-4)

Hyder Amil, you were supposed to be a thing. Amil was one of the more-hyped Contender Series children, a 2023 winner who seemed promisingly well-rounded and had already successfully tested himself in Bellator and the LFA en route to the big show, and starting off his UFC career with two straight underdog knockout victories earned him a whole lot of respect from the fans. Beating William Gomis by split decision didn’t really lower his stock, either--it’s William Gomis, no one’s stopped him in almost ten years, and besides, he won! Then Jose Delgado knocked Amil out in twenty-six seconds. Then Jamall Emmers, who had gone half a decade without managing back-to-back wins, finally broke his streak by grinding Amil down to a unanimous decision loss. One year ago, Amil was undefeated: Now, he is trying to avert a three-fight losing streak.

No one gets how quickly the sport can move past you like Christian Rodriguez. The UFC hand-picked him as a main-card pay-per-view victim for their undefeated child soldier Raul Rosas Jr. thanks to Christian’s history of getting outwrestled, and Christian proceeded to really piss them off by a) missing weight and b) beating the absolute dogshit out of their special boy. He then proceeded to miss weight even worse in his next fight, which meant it was time for a--completely correct--forced move to Featherweight by the UFC. 145 just hasn’t been kind to the man. Hilariously, his two moments of glory have come from taking out two more undefeated UFC prospects, one in Isaac Dulgarian and the other in Austin Bashi, but he’s 1 for his last 4 and I promise they would not miss him if he lost and they could finally get their just revenge.

So I am asking you to do it to ‘em one more time. CHRISTIAN RODRIGUEZ BY DECISION.

FLYWEIGHT: André Lima (11-0) vs Kevin Borjas (10-5)

André Lima has had an incredibly annoying time in the UFC, through very little fault of his own. He makes it through the Contender Series in 2023, waits half a year to make his debut against Igor Severino, and wins--by disqualification, after Severino bites him so hard it leaves a dental imprint of his teeth so perfect you would scoff at it for being unrealistic if you saw it on whatever iteration of CSI is still plaguing the airwaves. He goes through two replacements for one fight, then fucks up his own weight cut. He wins two fights, including his first finish and by far the best win of his career, then finds himself on the shelf for more than a year with an injury. He waits on a return against Dong Hun Choi, only for that fight to be rescheduled twice and ultimately cancelled.

And now, as one of the most promising Flyweight prospects in the company, he is making his return against Kevin Borjas, who is 1-4 in the company and whose one and only win came against Mexican meme star Ronaldo “Lazy Boy” Rodríguez, who missed weight and hasn’t competed since. Borjas wasn’t supposed to win that fight, and as revenge for his victory the UFC sent him to China to lose to Chinese star Sumudaerji, and when that didn’t satisfy their thirst for revenge, they followed it up by sending him to Mexico City to lose a fight against Imanol Rodriguez. He is here to be defeated. He is here to suffer.

So please make it quick, André. ANDRÉ LIMA BY SUBMISSION.

FEATHERWEIGHT: Melsik Baghdasaryan (8-3) vs Murtazali Magomedov (10-0)

As someone who spends too much of their free time face-deep in MMA research, I’d like you to know, for the record, that half the problem is how much of our data is just plain wrong. The UFC’s punch stats? The ones I cite all the time? Not just frequently miscalculated, but also beholden to such absurd rubrics that every three-feet-away teep Sean Strickland throws is counted as a significant strike attempt, but someone landing a ground-and-pound haymaker might not make the cut. The records? Regularly disputed, given that one leading database counts everything and another tries to reflect fixed fights.

When I went looking up tape on Murtazali Magomedov, I saw that his last pre-Contender Series fight was a bout with Brazilian champion Claudeci Brito. According to Tapology’s database--and the UFC’s--Murtazali and Brito are the same exact height, down to the centimeter.

Down to the centimeter.

I dunno, man. Melsik Baghdasaryan had promise as a striking prospect but then he disappeared in a puff of smoke and this is just one month shy of being his second fight in the last three years. We saw him in February of 2025 and he got destroyed in one round by Jean Silva and then he went right back to the toy chest. Every time he shows up he looks a little worse and a little more tentative, and meanwhile, Murtazali is fighting out in Kazakhstan where people are of indeterminate height and everyone knows how to wrestle at least a little bit.

I will side with the Steppe. MURTAZALI MAGOMEDOV BY TKO.

PRELIMS: DEATH WOULD BE MORE HONEST
WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHT: Bia Mesquita (7-0, #13) vs Melissa Mullins (7-2, NR)

It’s very, very funny that I spent all that time talking about how Light Heavyweight is doing almost as poorly as Women’s Bantamweight, and yet, the inequality remains. Navajo Stirling and Ion Cuțelaba? Co-main event. Hyder Amil vs Christian Rodriguez? Main card. And yet, predictable as the sun, we have two ranked women’s fights on the prelims, and both of them are at Women’s Bantamweight, and the higher-ranked one is actually lower than this one because nothing is real. Bia Mesquita is, quite possibly, one of the only hopes for this division. She’s a hyper-aggressive grappler with world-class bonafides and despite being the second-smallest woman in the division they’ve allowed her to strangle everyone in her way. Melissa Mullins was 2023’s iteration of a bigger, stronger and considerably more British version of a grappling prospect for the future, but unfortunately, she just isn’t quite as good at it and she also keeps boning up her weight cut. The UFC putting her here in a ranked match is not a favor to her; it is an attempt to get rid of her.

At least they’re putting Mesquita in a preliminary headliner? I fucking guess? My fingers are scrabbling through the dirt and silt to find the bottom of this bar. BIA MESQUITA BY SUBMISSION.

FLYWEIGHT: Mitch Raposo (10-3) vs Allan Nascimento (22-6)

Good news, me: This is a rescheduling so you don’t have to do any goddamn work. We were supposed to see this back in April at Burns vs Malott, but Raposo got sick 48 hours before the event. Consequently: A rerun.

They’re putting you out to pasture, Mitch. You were a late replacement signing that they expected very little from, and you managed to wrestle a bit, which they also don’t like, and somehow despite pretty clearly losing most of your fights you kept only barely dropping split decisions, which is even worse. They expected you to lose to Azat Maksum last October and help rebuild his prospects, and they were not anticipating Azat blowing his weight cut and coming in tired and unprepared. So here’s the good news, Mitch: You get another shot and it’s at a real opponent who’s damn near ranked! The bad news is he’s one of the best grapplers in the division and they are wholly intent on him strangling you.

I almost want to root for you, but Allan beat my boy Jafel Filho, so I’m honorbound to root for him. ALLAN NASCIMENTO BY SUBMISSION.

FEATHERWEIGHT: Michael Aswell Jr. (11-4) vs Gaston Bolaños (8-5)

If you asked me to imagine the platonic ideal of an Apex prelim, it would be either this or a Middleweight bout between people with 4-0 records and nicknames like “Party Time” or “Bodybagz.” Gaston was a Bellator also-ran four years and change ago, he was one of the odder UFC pickups and he has proceeded to go 2-2, accomplish nothing, and sit out for an entire year since getting choked out by Quang Le, who has actually since been released from the organization, which is even more insulting. Michael Aswell Jr. is 1-2, his only victory came against Lucas Almeida, who was cut immediately afterward, and as an additional bonus he got hit one hundred and thirteen times just one day shy of three months ago but he’s still here because fuck you, get back in the fucking cage or we’ll go back to Samurai Fight House and hire Emmanuel “El Perro” Vallejos and replace you.

MICHAEL ASWELL JR. BY DECISION.

WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHT: Karol Rosa (19-7, #8) vs Luana Santos (10-2, #11)

Yup, here it is. Top ten Women’s Bantamweight fight? One woman who’s beaten former title contenders and been in a Fight of the Year candidate, one woman who’s 5-1 and on a solid winning streak? You better fucking believe that’s all the way down the fuck here. Karol Rosa may have a dozen UFC fights, but win or lose she’s gone to a decision in every single one of them, so the UFC has no use for her because it’s not like she’s Colby fucking Covington or anything. Luana Santos dropped a bout to Casey O’Neill a couple years ago, but since then she’s tapped Tainara Lisboa and beaten promising Canadian prospect Melissa Croden, so it makes perfect sense that she’s getting tested in the top ten against one of the longest-tenured, most-successful veterans in the division.

On the prelims. Under Michael Aswell Jr. It’s almost like they don’t want the division to live. What a crazy thought, that. KAROL ROSA BY DECISION.

WELTERWEIGHT: Leon Shahbazyan (12-4) vs Levan Chokheli (14-3 (1))

Hold on, wait. I’m sorry. Leon Shahbazyan? Edmen Shahbazyan wasn’t already enough, you had to go hire his older fucking brother? His brother who got knocked out by Phil Rowe on the Contender series? His brother who got thrown in a trashcan by Ryan Loder, TUF 32 (jesus christ) champion, in a minute and a half, a couple years before Loder proceeded to get repeatedly and effortlessly destroyed in the company? You are hiring that Leon Shahbazyan? His last five wins were the 14-10 Robert Hale, the 10-9 Gláucio Eliziário, the 9-10 Aaron “The Alaskan Bull Worm” Phillips, the 7-5 Aireon Tavarres, and my personal favorite, Marcus Hardaway, an 0-2 fighter whose last fight was against the man with the best name in the entire sport, Here Dudes? And you’re putting him against Levan Chokheli, who, himself, is known almost solely for losing to Goiti Yamauchi and Lorenz Larkin in Bellator?

You know what probably would have been a better idea? HIRING GOITI YAMAUCHI OR LORENZ LARKIN. You cut Lorenz Larkin a decade ago on a two-fight winning streak over Jorge Masvidal and Neil Magny! You could still get him! It isn’t too late!

Except, y’know, for how late it is. LEVAN CHOKHELI BY JESUS CHRIST, WHATEVER, I GUESS TKO, FUCK.

FEATHERWEIGHT: Shane Collins (7-0) vs Otari Tanzilovi (10-1)

No biting cynicism on this one, I’m looking forward to it. Shane Collins may still be a bit lacking in professional experience, but he had a long run as a successful amateur, he’s done well for himself down in Urijah Faber’s promotion, and he’s already pretty solid at wrestling, stringing together combinations and breaking livers, which puts him a step ahead of the rest of his peers. Otari Tanzilovi’s a Georgian striker who spins possibly more than he should and craves nothing more than the feeling of ribs breaking under his feet to the point of overcommitting, but he’s taken out a couple good fighters and he was a coinflip away from beating Josias Musasa on the Contender Series in 2024, so he almost made it to the big show already.

Of course, Musasa has proceeded to go 0-2, and Tanzilovi is being brought in as an underdog prospect, which is indicative that the house knows who it’s going for, here. SHANE COLLINS BY DECISION.